Saturday Preview: (20) Virginia at (5) North Carolina

On Saturday at 1pm, #20 Virginia (19-4, 6-3) will head to Chapel Hill to face the #5 ranked North Carolina Tar Heels (20-4, 7-2). As the whole world knows, UNC is coming off a devastating home loss against Duke on Wednesday night and Las Vegas has the Tar Heels as heavy 11-point favorites again the Cavaliers. UNC scores points in bunches (#1 in the nation in scoring offense at 84ppg) and is the #1 rebounding team in the country as well at 46rpg, led by the tallest front 4 in college basketball (Zeller at 7’0”, Henson at 6’11”, Barnes at 6’8” and Bullock at 6’7”).  Vegas has the over/under at 146, indicating that the sharps think that UNC will control tempo and make this a high scoring affair. With all due respect to the guys in Vegas, they have this one twisted.

Let’s do some simple analysis.

1)      North Carolina has played 24 games this season.

2)      Of those 24 games, 3 have been played against defenses that were ranked in the top 50 in the country (Wisconsin, Florida State, Kentucky).

3)      UNC averaged 63ppg against these three opponents going 1-2 in the matchups and only beating Wisconsin by 3 at home in their only win.

4)      Math: When UNC played stellar defenses, it scored 21 points less than its average.

5)      UVA is the second best scoring defense in the nation, giving up only 51ppg.

On paper, this is a great matchup for UVA’s pack-line defense. Virginia’s defense is premised on the idea that you play man to man defense but force opposing teams to shoot over the top. Virginia does a great job of playing the pick and roll by hedging out wide on screens and making it difficult for opposing teams to a) penetrate, and b) make entry passes into the post. UNC’s biggest weakness is it outside shooting (shot 1-6 from 3 against Duke on Wednesday) and I expect UVA to pack its defense into the post and force UNC to win the game by hitting 3s. The absence of Assane Sene will make the game tough on UVA’s bigs, but UVA rarely sends teams to the free throw line and has stayed out of foul trouble to date.

UNC’s entire offense runs through its point guard…always has, always will. Kendall Marshall is widely considered to be the best passing point guard in college basketball. He gets the majority of his assists on transition buckets and by getting into the lane, drawing a defender, and hitting Henson or Zeller for a dunk. UVA presents two major problems for Kendall Marshall and, thus, UNC’s ability to effectively run its offense:

1)      UVA does not allow teams to score points in transition. As part of Tony Bennett’s system, UVA only sends 1 guy to the offensive glass and send 4 back on defense. Although this results in a limited number of offensive rebounds for UVA, it effectively prevents opposing teams from running a fast break.

2)      Jontel Evans is, hands down, the best on the ball defender in the ACC and you can bet your ass that Jontel is going to be all over Marshall all day long. Marshall is extremely slow and will have a very tough time getting into the paint with Evans riding him all game long.

As a result, I expect UVA to dictate tempo in this game and force UNC to grind out a game in the 60’s. Virginia’s offense has been extremely effective against teams that play poor defense (see Wake Forest, Duke) and I would expect this to continue against the worst perimeter defensive team in the country. It will be difficult to get a win in Chapel Hill, but UVA is an experienced team and is hungry to get its first big-time ACC win. Assuming Mike Scott can stay out of foul trouble, I predict a UVA upset – 67-65.

Key Matchups:

PG: Jontel Evans vs. Kendall Marshall

I have discussed this matchup in plenty of detail above. Kendall Marshall’s leprechaun flute might lull some defenses to sleep, but not the #2 defense in the country. I expect Jontel to get into the lane at will on offense and score in double figures for the second consecutive game.

Advantage: Virginia

 

SG: Sammy Zeglinksi vs. Reggie Bullock

Zeglinksi has been on quite the cold streak as of late, and this is going to be a very difficult matchup for him. Bullock is long and is a pretty solid defender and you know that Roy has ben pounding the table about defending the three after Duke hit 14 of them on Wednesday. If Bullock is able to get his man in the post, he should have his way with a 6 inch height advantage. Bullock does look like a clown though.

Advantage: UNC

 

SF: Joe Harris vs. Harrison Barnes

NBA draft scouts would say that this matchup is a no-brainer in Barnes’ favor, but I’m not so sure. Barnes plays like a robot and settles for WAY too many jump shots, which will be easy to do against UVA’s pack-line defense that allows contested three pointers. Additionally, once Barnes gets into the lane, he rarely passes, so UVA should be able to force him to take tough shots with its help-defense. He averages 18ppg but shoots under 50%. On the other hand, Barnes is the worst perimeter defender on the team and Harris is one of the best three point shooters in the ACC (averaging 2 makes per game). I expect Harris to get plenty of open looks and, based on his last several games, expect him to knock them down.

Advantage: Push

 

PF: Mike Scott vs. John Henson

Mike Scott has been the most efficient scorer in the ACC to date, but he will face his biggest challenge of the season. John “Gumby” Henson has a 10 foot wingspan and looks a lot like a pterodactyl when he block shots, which he does at an impressive pace (averages 3.1bps game – 1^st in the ACC). The problem for Henson is that Mike Scott’s fade away J is unblockable. I expect Henson to do some significant work on the offensive glass, but do not think he can keep Scott from getting 20+. This is a statement game for Scott as he tries to impress scouts and I think he will live up to the hype.

Advantage: Virginia

 

C: Akil Mitchell vs. Tyler Zeller

This is likely the most lopsided matchup, as Zeller (aka George McFly) has been playing great basketball during the ACC season. UVA just has to hope that Mitchell can stay out of foul trouble and can limit Big Z’s touches.

Advantage: UNC